CHIME outcomes (Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modelling and Evaluation) model
Information last updated: July 2022
Participated in following Mt Hood Diabetes Challenge Meetings: 2019 Seoul, Korea.
Publicly accessible?: Yes. The equations of the model have been published in sufficient detail to enable the model to be replicated (see model website).
Is the model continuing to be developed?: Yes.
The CHIME model is an individual-level discrete-time simulation model programmed in R. It integrates prediabetes and type 2 diabetes into a comprehensive model, particularly suitable for Chinese and East Asian populations. CHIME uses an integrated system of parametric equations that predict the annual probability of 13 outcomes: all-cause mortality, diabetes-related macrovascular events (myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease), microvascular events (peripheral vascular disease, neuropathy, amputation, ulcer of the skin, renal failure, cataracts, and retinopathy), and development of diabetes status (for prediabetes).
The simulation model records outputs including time to death and complications, the annual incidence of complications and death, and changes in risk factors. Predictions are based on patient demographics, duration of diabetes, biomarker values, smoking status, and history of complications. CHIME was developed from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong Clinical Management System (97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017; and externally validated against the CHARLS cohort and nine simulated diabetes trials.
The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policymakers to evaluate population-level strategies on outcomes through their impact on risk factor levels.
Funding source for model development:
Research Grants Council, Hong Kong SAR (ref. 27112518).
Quan J, Ng CS, Kwok HHY, Zhang A, Yuen YH, Choi CH, Siu SC, Tang SY, Wat NM, Woo J, Eggleston K, Leung GM. Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modelling study. PLOS Med 2021;18(6): e1003692.