Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease Model (MRCDM)
Information last updated: Dec 2024
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Participated in following Mt Hood Diabetes Challenge Meetings: NA
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Publicly accessible?: Model is accessible via Th(is)²Modeling. An internet platform is under development
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Is the model continuing to be developed?: Yes.
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Brief Description:
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The Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease Model (MRCDM) is a generic (not treatment
specific) agent-based Markov model that can predict the risk of complications and mortality
in individuals with or without diabetes (type 1 or 2), obesity (defined by BMI),
cardiovascular (CVD) or chronic kidney disease (CKD).
It is (being) programmed in C++ and uses easy modifiable MS Excel input and output sheets.
The progression of risk factors (including but not limited to HbA1c-TIR, lipids, blood
pressure, BMI, eGFR, uACR) is modeled over time and sourced from large epidemiological
trials.
The risk of complications (developing diabetes, myocardial infarction, stable and unstable
angina, stroke, transient ischaemic attack, intermittent claudication, end stage kidney disease,
eye disease, neuropathy, ulcer and amputation, and obesity related complications) is predicted
using well established risk equations and transition probabilities that are region specific
(North and South America, UK, Scandinavia (Europe), Asia).
Mortality can be predicted with risk equations or can be disease specific (using case fatality
and long-term transition probabilities). The model can be easily populated with treatment
specific efficacy data and can be calibrated to replicate cardiovascular and other outcomes
trials.
Annual cycles are used. The individual patient can have more than one complication within a
year.
Baseline characteristics can be filled in with generic cohort data from clinical trials or RWE
studies.
The economic data can be easily changeable to different local data sets and uploadable
allowing country specific analyses.
Utilities are age, gender and region specific. An additive approach is applied to estimate the
impact of complications on quality of life of individuals.
The model produces all the necessary outcomes to prepare HTA submission dossiers and to
generate evidence that can support strategic decision making.
All inputs and settings are set up in an MS Excel interface before being uploaded into the
engine.
The intellectual property of the MRCDM belongs to Th(is)²Modeling.
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Funding source for model development:
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Th(is)²Modeling.
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Key Publications:
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Martins L, Ramos M, Lamotte M. Internal Validation of the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease
Model: Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes. Ispor 2024 Barcelona Nov 17-20. Poster
session 1 EE107 – Monday 10.30-13.00.
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Lamotte M, Martins L, Ramos M. Internal Validation of the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease
Model: Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes. Ispor 2024 Barcelona Nov 17-20. Poster
session 2 EE284 – Monday 16.00-19.00
Ramos M, Martins L, Lamotte M. Internal Validation of the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease
Model: Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes. Ispor 2024 Barcelona Nov 17-20. Poster session 4 EE619 –
Tuesday 16.00-19.00
Martins L, Lamotte M, Ramos M. Internal Validation of the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease
Model: Risk of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events in a Population With and Without Diabetes. Ispor
2024 Barcelona Nov 17-20. Poster session 5 EE779 – Wednesday 9.00-10.00
Ramos M, Martins L, Lamotte M. Internal Validation of the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease
Model: Mortality in Type 1 Diabetes. Ispor 2024 Barcelona Nov 17-20. Poster session 5 EE780 –
Wednesday 9.00-10.00.