Challenge Session Overview


The impact of model uncertainty on cost-effectiveness estimates of diabetes interventions is unknown. The aim of Mt Hood 2022 challenges are to examine the variation in cost-effectiveness estimates associated with two categories of diabetes interventions: a reduction in a patient’s blood glucose levels and a reduction in weight. This variation will provide an estimate of model uncertainty, which will provide the basis for a publication. The challenge is broken into two components. 

12 Models have registered so far for the challenges. 

Challenge 1: Revisiting the reference simulation

We will also ask groups to repeat the reference simulations for a standard patent that were in previous challenges and reported in the MT Hood model registry. This will enable model simulations to be compared across time and across different models.


Challenge 2: Simulating costs and cost-effectiveness


Following the 2018 Mt Hood Quality of life Challenge, the challenge employs average values or characteristics of patients enrolled in RCTs of common diabetes therapies. The average treatment effect of each category of intervention will be modelled by permanent reduction in HbA1c and body mass index. Each category of intervention has the same treatment effect but differ in their costs. The results from this exercise will provide an indication of what factors influence the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. The challenge will also examine how then estimated incremental QALYs, costs and ICER vary for a cohort of patients with a history of myocardial infarction and following the inclusion of unrelated future medical costs.

Finally, we expand on the original 2018 challenge and include instructions for type 1 diabetes models participating in the challenge.

Challenge instructions can be downloaded below as well as excel sheet for model results and a model registration form. If you have not already done so please submit a registration form to

Participation in publications  arising from the meeting

In the past several groups participating in the conference have collaborated on a subsequent publication. Involvement in the publication process is on a voluntary basis and involves acceptance of the following principles:      

i. No team can block publication of the paper except because of concerns related to scientific soundness — e.g., the data collection, analyses and presentation were done incorrectly.

Concerns related to policy, management, or scientific implications are not grounds for a co- author to block publication. If a majority of Team members believe the paper should be published based on sound science, the paper will move forward. Every reasonable effort should be made by the Leader and others to reach a consensus on moving forward with a publication.

ii. Teams may voluntarily remove themselves from the project, and from co-authorship, at any point if they no longer have time for the project or they disagree with some aspect of the project or paper. If a Team voluntarily leaves the project or is asked to leave because they

are opposed to the paper being published, the Team and Chair of Mt Hood Steering Committee will need to discuss with the dissenting member if his/her contributions can still be used, and perhaps described in the Acknowledgements, or if their contribution will have to be removed from the paper.