Mt Hood 2025 Challenge Session Overview
Final Instructions
Updates- 16 May 2025
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We have updated the instructions for Challenges 1-3 - please download the new instructions
​Model Info form
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Mt Hood 2025 will focus on the use of simulation models in quantifying the benefits and cost-effectiveness of weight reduction interventions both in the people with diabetes and the wider population.
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Mt Hood Challenge Registration form - all groups competing in any of the challenges, please complete this registration form (which will be used to provide background details in the program)
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Please send the completed forms asap to mthood2016@gmail.com with INFO FORM_MODEL NAME in the subject line.
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Those competing in challenges should check this web-page regularly for any updates.
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Challenge 1: Reference simulation
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All groups with Type 2 diabetes simulation models should repeat the reference simulations for a standard patent that were in previous challenges and reported in the Mt Hood model registry. This will enable model simulations to be compared across time and across different models. Existing models that have been updates (in any way) or new simulation models should undertake the reference simulations (see registry for details). These reference simulations can be undertaken at any time and should be attempted before undertaking the challenges below.
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​​Challenge 2: Simulating outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of weight reduction interventions in people with Type 2 diabetes
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The challenge is divided into two parts:
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Model Performance – Participants estimate total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from a patient population based on the EXSCEL Trial, comparing model-predicted QALYs against trial estimates using mean squared error (MSE).
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Cost-effectiveness Analysis – Using UK healthcare system data, participants assess the lifetime cost-effectiveness of a weight-loss intervention compared to usual care. Results are aggregated using both equal and weighted model performance scores.
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Challenge 3: Simulating outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of weight reduction interventions in general population
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The Mount Hood Obesity Challenge 2025 aims to assess the performance of different obesity simulation models in predicting cardiovascular outcomes for overweight or obese individuals without diabetes, using data from the SELECT clinical trial. The trial found that weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg significantly reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) by 20% compared to placebo in patients with cardiovascular disease but no diabetes. Participants will model the incidence of MACE and diabetes progression over 5-year and lifetime horizons, estimating risk reduction with semaglutide and evaluating lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and life years (LYs). The challenge focuses on model accuracy, transparency, and reproducibility, aiming to improve obesity simulation methods and inform best practices in cost-effectiveness modeling. A sheet for results will be posted shortly.​
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Challenge 4: Applying Mt Hood challenge approach to other disease simulation models
​​​We are working with health economics and other groups developing simulation models to apply the Mt Hood Challenge approach to compare models in two different disease areas:
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Assess policies to reduce rates of smoking at a population level;
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Osteoarthritis Models- simulate the lifetime outcomes of weight reduction using semaglutide (2.4 mg once weekly) compared to the control intervention
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Draft instructions for the Osteoarthritis challenge are below.
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​​Groups participating in challenges for Mt Hood 2025 will need to submit all results by 15 June 2025, so these can be compiled for the conference program.
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Participation in publications arising from the meeting
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In the past several groups participating in the conference have collaborated on a subsequent publication. Involvement in the publication process is on a voluntary basis and involves acceptance of the following principles:
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i. No team can block publication of the paper except because of concerns related to scientific soundness — e.g., the data collection, analyses and presentation were done incorrectly.
Concerns related to policy, management, or scientific implications are not grounds for a co- author to block publication. If a majority of Team members believe the paper should be published based on sound science, the paper will move forward. Every reasonable effort should be made by the Leader and others to reach a consensus on moving forward with a publication.
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ii. Teams may voluntarily remove themselves from the project, and from co-authorship, at any point if they no longer have time for the project or they disagree with some aspect of the project or paper. If a Team voluntarily leaves the project or is asked to leave because they
are opposed to the paper being published, the Team and Chair of Mt Hood Steering Committee will need to discuss with the dissenting member if his/her contributions can still be used, and perhaps described in the Acknowledgements, or if their contribution will have to be removed from the paper.
