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Building diabetes simulation models in 2020s


Tuesday 16th of June 2020 from 1pm - 5pm 

The workshop is intended for those want to understand all aspects of diabetes simulation modelling. It intended to cover both the design and construction of new simulation models with an emphasis on using emerging data that is becoming available.

It should be of interest for those intending to use simulation models, as well as, those developing models. In addition to a reviewing current commonly used simulation models such as the UKPDS Outcomes Model, the workshop will discuss a new Type 1 diabetes simulation model.


Introduction to diabetes modeling:

  • Brief History

  • How simulation models work

  • Constructing risk equations using individual data

  • What is different about diabetes in Asia

Quality of life and complications:

  • Collection of Quality of life data: Case studies from UKPDS and ADVANCE studies

  • How often and what do we need to collect?

  • Heterogeneity in responses across regions (e.g. Asia vs rest of the world)

  • Should be using levels or changes in Quality of life

  • Relationship between utility and mortality

  • Quality Adjusted Survival Models

  • Role of meta-analysis 

  • What next?

Costs of treatments and complications:

  • Changes in the price and expenditure of diabetes therapies:  recent evidence from Asia 

  • Options for collecting resource use information

  • Analysis of costs in diabetes RCTS

  • Costing equations 

  • Sources of costing data in other countries – Sweden, Australia, ADVANCE.

  • What next? 

Future directions in modeling:

  • Adapting models across settings

  • Calibration risk equations 

  • Developing new equations – mortality following events -  WA UKPDS example

  • LE calculators (Sweden & WA)

  • What can we learn from meta-models?

New Developments in Type 1 diabetes:

  • Burden of the disease: Life expectancy gap in Sweden & Australia

  • How a hypo can impact on your life expectancy

  • Overview of a new Type 1 diabetes model

  • What next?


Professor Philip Clarke was instrumental in the development of both versions of the UKPDS Outcomes Model.  More recently he has been involved in the development of a comparable Type 1 diabetes simulation model using data from a large diabetes registry in Sweden. He has also been involved with the economic analyses of the major diabetes clinical trials including the UKPDS, FIELD and ADVANCE studies and has collaborated with researchers across Asia.

Professor Andrew Palmer was a co-founded CORE, Centre for Outcomes Research, in July 2000 and was medical director and CEO until 2005. He developed the CORE diabetes model which has been widely used, particularly to evaluate pharmaceutical interventions for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes. He has since developed a diabetes prevention model and has collaborated with Prof Clarke on the development of the Type 1 diabetes model.

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